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Nov 1 commentary
Don’t know about you, but ive been receiving at least one
phone call per day with a recorded message warning me not to
vote for charlie brown. Not one mention of the views of his
opponent or what he will do for me if re elected. Only sleezy
warnings about charlie brown. Gutter Politics john Doolittle
style.
Next time. Tt hipp reported last fri that upwards of 300 us
trooups might have been wounded or died in an attack on an ammo
base some weeks ago and this tragedy was somehow omitted from
news reports. This might look a triffle bad for the
administration but I want to reassure all my republican
listeners that karl rove is busy at work and will soon spin this
event to blame the Clintons and perhaps even jimmy carter.
Addemdum to this story. I have been unable to find any other
reference to travus story. . Any listener who has more info on
this please contact me. Further addendum. Our intrepid news
slewth steve baker came up with the web site trbnews.org for oct
20 which had several references to this story. For those of you
wishing to do a google search of your own. The military base
attacked was camp falcon. Next item US District Judge Rules
Florida Exit Polling Ban Unconstitutional. US District Judge
Paul Huck ruled on Tuesday that a 2005 Florida law that banned
exit polling from occurring within 100 feet of a polling place
is unconstitutional and violates the First Amendment's free
speech and freedom of the press protections. The judge found
that the state "failed to provide any meaningful evidence
that exit polling has any history of leading to voter
intimidation, impeding voter access to the polls, or encouraging
election fraud," reports the St. Petersburg Times.
He also noted that of the 5,000 recent complaints the state has
received for harassment at polling places, none were about exit
polling. Next item: you want proof the world is nuts? The
usa soccer football team has been 2nd rate for
decades—maybe forever. The hot rumor was to hire soccer legend
Jürgen Klinsmann as coach. He is seen as the coach who could
lead U.S. soccer out of the wilderness of mediocrity, and talks
have begun. Insiders say one stumbling block is shoes. U.S.
soccer is a Nike operation, and Klinsmann has strong ties to
Adidas. That’s right all you patriots. Shoe companies
determine who the usa national team choses its coach.
Next item: You and I are told increasingly that we have to
choose between a left or right, but I would like to suggest that
there is no such thing as a left or right. There is only an up
or down — up to a man's age-old dream; the ultimate in
individual freedom consistent with law and order — or down to
the ant heap totalitarianism; and regardless of their sincerity,
their humanitarian motives, those who would trade our freedom
for security have
embarked on this downward course." And who was the
visionary who said these remarkably timely and relevant words?
Ronald Reagan
next item: this from Bernard weiner-the crisis papers: A
BANANA-REPUBLIC VOTING SYSTEM Another aspect of American life
that foreigners have trouble comprehending is our slipshod
election system. The U.S. has a reputation for sophistication
and technological smarts, but our current voting procedures are
so deficient, corrupted and easily corruptible, that we resemble
a banana-republic dictatorship in the way our rulers are chosen.
France, Canada, Germany, and so many other countries, are so far
advanced in how they tabulate the votes -- most by hand-counted
paper ballots, with tight security involved in doing so -- and
how quickly they are able to announce the winners. In the U.S.,
the Republican Administration in effect has outsourced voting
equipment and voting tabulation to three Republican-supporting
private corporations. They make the voting machines and control
the proprietary software that programs the way those work, which
means the way votes are registered and, most importantly,
counted. Their technicians have access to the machines,
sometimes by remote control, and can alter the programming
without anybody ever knowing about the manipulation. Because of
this flawed system, the past three U.S. elections (2000, 2002
and 2004) are suspect. Statistical and anecdotal evidence leads
to the obvious conclusion that each of those results were
fiddled with, or in some states such as Ohio and Florida, the
Republican Secretaries of State declared hundreds of thousands
of likely Democratic voters ineligible to vote, forcing them to
legally fight for the right to have their choices counted.
"I simply find it incredible that your citizens put up with
such rubbish," said a New Zealand businessman as we ate
breakfast in the Sahara Desert in southern Morocco two years
ago. "Why on earth do they permit such a scandal?"
Other foreigners have said something similar whenever the
subject comes up. And how does one explain why Americans are so
lackadaisical about their right to have their votes counted
honestly? Even the nominal opposition party, the Democrats,
haven't taken the issue seriously enough to loudly protest or
take the case to court. It is a scandal, one that easily could
be repeated, at least in key districts, in next month's midterm
election. And if you think Karl Rove and his minions are not
aware of their opportunities in this regard, you're amazingly
naive. THE SLIDE OF THE AMERICAN DOLLAR I've been traveling
abroad for decades, ever since my college days -- always useful
for a writer in obtaining some fresh perspective on one's own
country -- and so can remember the era of the "mighty
American dollar." If you had dollars in your pocket, didn't
matter how many, you felt wealthy abroad. Not so much anymore,
and not just because everything costs way more now than it did
decades ago. There still are places where dollars are preferred
(at the nightly crafts market in Luong Prabong, Laos, for
example), but in most areas, the sought-after currency is the
Euro. As the dollar sinks in value and prestige, and the Euro
rises, one can anticipate even more of a slide in America's
status abroad and some dislocations in the American economy of
potentially major proportions. In short, even though America
stands as the lone superpower colossus in the world, it is
somewhat musclebound and its influence and respect are
fast-waning. Changing Administrations in Washington might help
bring back some of that honor and influence, but it's equally
likely that the "old days" are over and that more
intelligent U.S. administrations will have to learn how to use
America's economic and political power more creatively and less
aggressively. We can start on that road back toward respect and
international good-will by a landslide defeat of Republicans on
November 7. Make sure you and your friends and neighbors vote,
and that you demand, or sue for, an honest balloting and
verifiable tabulating of the votes. This is an election that
will determine our personal, national and global future; that's
how important November 7 is. We are making history here. Next
item: just in case you think America is the only country to use
the phony war on terrorism to enact silly laws, or worse, to
enhance fascist control over its citizens, we have this report
from italy: A note taped to the cash register informed patrons
that last year, as a response to terrorists communicating with
each other over the internet, the Italian government passed a
law requiring that anyone wanting to get on the Web at such an
internet business must provide photo I.D. that will be
duplicated and kept on file at the business until or if the
police ask to see it. In Florence, I asked the proprietor what
was going on. "It's simply crazy," said the owner,
"My back room is stuffed with thousands of these old
duplicated pieces of paper, and I'm obliged to hang onto them
forever. It places an undue burden on those of us who run
internet points. What on earth do they think they're
accomplishing? "Any reasonably competent terrorist will
find his way onto the internet despite this stupid law. Phony
passports or driver's licenses, disguises, use of library
terminals, wireless locations, whatever. This law was passed
mainly to make the politicians look like they're actually doing
something to protect us, when in fact nothing really has been
accomplished except to inconvenience the public and those of us
businesses that now have to become permanent paper repositories.
"Plus," he said, "it's just making it easier for
the government, any government, to turn its citizens into
compliant robots. Take off your shoes before you get on an
airplane, take off your belt and let the X-ray machine examine
it, I'll bet if they required everybody to strip behind a screen
people eventually would get used to doing that, too. Freedom is
being sliced away, piece by piece, and we all participate in it,
by doing what they tell us. But I'm a businessman, what can I
do? I have to comply. It's crazy." We then got involved in
a long and fascinating discussion about what was happening in
Italy and what was happening in the U.S. around the "war on
terrorism" question. Short sum-up: Italy under Berlusconi
and the U.S. under Bush were using the "war on
terrorism" as cover for their own far-right agendas.
Election Fraud 2006 - Quantifying The Risk
By Michael Collins
Created Oct 25 2006 - 8:09am
By Michael Collins [1] and TruthIsAll
— first published by Scoop
Independent Media [2]
Rev. DeForest Soaries [3], former head of the U.S.
Elections Assistance Commission (EAC) said that voting
conditions are " ripe for stealing elections and for
fraud."
When a Bush appointee to the EAC makes this remark, it puts
election fraud right at the center of the table. The upcoming
elections are critical to the well being of the United States
and the rest of the world. Given the recent history of strongly
suspected election fraud, we need superior intelligence and
added diligence to spot any foul play early. The potential for
of investigation, revelations, and pounding the table for a fair
election since 2004 has been squandered. Last minute bills for
emergency paper ballots are going nowhere. We’re stuck with a
voting system that is measurably less reliable than 2000
according to Rev. Soaries.
Yet, there is still a potential for the Democrats to win not
only the Congressional Elections but to stave off the many temptations
to interfere with the intent of "We the people."
Awareness by candidates, party officials, and, most critically,
the grass roots activists is imperative. A huge turnout is also
part of a fraud fighting strategy. The more participation, the
more eye witnesses, the better our democracy is served. This
document outlines the states and districts where the margins are
thin and extreme diligence is required. Please forward
the "Print" version of this article to the Democratic
National Committee [4] and the candidates in question.
This analysis by internet poster TruthIsAll [5] is
intended to provide a set of focal points and formulae to look
for fraud. It’s offered in the spirit of winning through
awareness and diligence and assuring that the winners are
actually those candidates, of either party, who received a
plurality of votes in free and fair elections.
For those who don’t believe that elections are vulnerable
to the type of fraud Rev. Soires mentioned:
Remember 2000, Florida
- Remember 2002 Georgia - Cleland & Barnes
- Remember 2004 Ohio and the rest of the country
- Remember 2005 Ohio Special Election - Hackett
- Remember 2005 Ohio Special Measures Election
The list is much longer but this makes the point to anyone
who has followed electoral politics since 2000. Democrats need
to anticipate the combination punches the Republicans throw in
their election beat down, (e.g., voter suppression,
spoiled ballots, tossed ballots, e-voting security problems,
e-voting provided by Republican leaning vendors, etc. etc.).
There will be a broad outline of risks later in the article but
first the good news.
**********
The Prospects for Democrats Look Very Good
The strong Democratic trend continues. They lead the GOP by
16.5% in the 3-poll Moving Average, a 7% increase in the last
month. Undecided (Other) voters, currently at 5-7%, appear to be
breaking by 2-1 for the Democrats.
Click for big version [6]
Click for big version
[7]
These charts display the positive slope of the Democratic
trend vs. the flat GOP trend during the past 12 months across
generic congressional polls. Chart 1 [8] Chart 2
[9]
*******
The House: A Monte Carlo Election Simulation
Forecast
1000 simulated trial elections. Based on Polls as of Oct.14
Current House: 232 Republicans; 202 Democrats; 1 Independent
The Democrats need to capture 16 Republicans seats (net) to
gain control of the House. How many of the 58-contested
Republican House seats can the Democrats expect to win, assuming
a fraud-free election?
Corollary: How many elections will the Republicans need
"win" to maintain control?
In the most likely scenario the Democrats will win 60% of the
undecided vote, they can expect to capture 32 of the 58
Republican-held seats. There is a 99% probability that they will
win 30 or more. Therefore, the Republicans will have to steal a
minimum of 16 elections in order to retain the House.
Of the 58 polls:
1) Democrats lead in 15 races beyond the MoE
2) Democrats lead in 11 within the MoE
3) Democrats tie the Republicans in 5
4) Republicans lead in 15 within the MoE
5) Republicans lead in 12 beyond the MoE
The closest races within the margin of error are the ones
most likely to be "ripe for stealing elections and for
fraud," as Rev. Soaries says, voter suppression, and those
"coincidences" or machine malfunctions including vote
switching.
They are the 22 districts between PA-6 and NY-29 in the
chart: Chart [10]
Click for big version [11]
The analysis assumes nearly zero fraud and is based strictly
on the latest poll shares, undecided voter allocation and margin
of error. The model will be updated for new polling data and run
again just prior to election day.
The simulation calculates the probability of the Democrats
winning a specified number of the 58 seats, over a range of
undecided voter allocation assumptions. It provides a very
robust estimate of the minimum number of elections that would
need to be stolen in order for the Republicans to retain control
of the House.
In a published study of over 150 incumbent elections, the
challenger won the undecided vote in 82% of the races, the
incumbent won in 12%, and the rest were split.
Even with the very conservative UVA assumption that the
undecided vote will be evenly split, then assuming the elections
are fraud-free, it is a virtual 100% probability that the
Democrats will net at least 25 Republican seats, or nine more
than the minimum required for House control.
Sensitivity Analysis:
UVA: Undecided voter % allocated to Democrats
N: number of Republican seats won by Democrats
e.g. 25 seats gained at 50%> UVA
With a 60% UVA, the Democrats can
See a pick up of 34 seats at 51% probability.
This chart displays the probability curve: click
here [12].
US House of Representatives: 58 Races in Play
House Polling Detail. Races 1-10:
Full 58 House Races here
[13]. House Probabilities here. [14] Democratic % here
[15].
Races 48-58:
These are the districts with the highest
probability of fraud, voter suppression, or
"coincidental"
equipment problems. The races are all within the margin of error
and thus would raise less of a question should they result in
one of those last minute comebacks to put the Republicans over
the top.
********
The Senate: A Monte Carlo Election Simulation
Forecast
(1000 simulated trial elections
Based on Polls as of Oct.14)
Current Senate: 55 Republicans; 44 Democrats; 1 Independent
There are nine critical races: New Jersey, Tennessee,
Virginia, Missouri, Connecticut, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
and Rhode Island
The Democrats need to hold their lead in New Jersey and win 6
of the other 8 seats for a 50-49-1 majority. They have solid
leads in 5 GOP seats, a narrow lead in TENNESSEE, and are
slightly behind in Virginia. Lieberman (Ind) is far ahead in CT.
Assuming they win the 5 solid GOP seats and retain New Jersey
seat, they need to win either Virginia or Tennessee for a
majority.
Therefore, Virginia and Tennessee should be closely monitored
for fraud or other irregularities.
Probability of Democratic Victories in the Senate.
Sensitivity Analysis: Assuming zero election fraud and
that the Democrats capture 60% of the undecided vote (UVA), then
with an election based on these polls, there is a 99%
probability that they will win a 50-49 senate majority. The win
probability is slightly lower (91%) if the undecided vote is
split (50% UVA).
The analysis shows the relationship between undecided voter
decisions at different splits between Democrats and Republicans
in the Senate races. At a 50%-50% split with undecideds, the
Democrats should pick up six seats right now. The hurdle to a
larger pick up is significant given current polls. This can
change quickly with adjusted poll data indicating a shift in
public preferences.The difficult of getting above six seats
reinforces the need for greater attention to signs of election
fraud.
U.S. Senate: 29 Seats up for Election
Those marked in yellow are the critical races,
and are top targets
for voter suppression and election fraud problems.
PROB is the probability of a Democratic win
(assuming a 60% UVA)
Unweighted Poll Average: Dem: 49.5%, Rep:
42.2%, Prob.: 74.3%
Full list of Senate Races here. [16] Senate
Races by Democratic % here. [17]
These races are still fluid and shifts are common in the last
two weeks of the campaign.
Based on the data, these are the races that will determine
control of the US Senate. Unless the Democrats plan for a 1994
election shift, special attention is required. Of these states,
Pennsylvania had numerous election irregularities in 2004; Ohio’s
election was a disgrace; Missouri was the site of poll closing
and other controversies; Tennessee experienced problems with
electronic voting. In 2005 Virginia had a recount that didn’t
allow counting optical scan ballots!
Note that the polls and associated probabilities do not
factor in spoiled and lost votes (mostly democratic) which occur
in every election. This suggests that the net Democratic lead
may be 1% lower than the polls suggest. On the other hand, the
undecided vote (currently 5%) usually splits in favor of the
challenger - in this case, the Democrat. So we may have a wash
here.
The calculations don’t factor in a sudden event, an
"October" surprise, for example, that might shift more
races into one of the three categories. Given the impact of the
Foley scandal and the likelihood of more in that or another
emerging from the scandal rich terrain of the Republican
congress, this is a very real possibility.
In addition, ABC News, in part of a general press turn around
to more coverage is actually raising the likelihood of what they
call "bias" as a result of e-voting. "Bias"
here is surely a code word for fraud since machines need human
intervention be biased.
The Election Fraud BEAT DOWN
The beat down first showed up in Florida when
Republicans unified and did everything they could to scare
Democrats off and turn a loss into a stolen election. With the
exception of Al Gore resisting, the balance of the Democratic
leadership stood back and allowed the distortions, "preppy
riots," and outrageous Supreme Court decision to go
unchallenged.
Beat down refers to the strategies of voter suppression,
voter disenfranchisement, and extreme "leveraging" of
technology that seems to favor Republican candidates time after
time.
Greg Palast outlined key strategies that have nothing to
do with electronic voting. These are time honored techniques
that have been honed to perfection over decades. The following
four points are provided in Palast’s new article, Recipe
for a Cooked Election [18] in YES magazine:
Four Traditional Voter Suppression Strategies from
Greg Palast: No E-Voting Required [19]
· Provisional Ballots Rejected.
An entirely new species of ballot debuted nationwide in
2004: the "provisional ballot." These were crucial
to the Bush victory. Not because Republicans won this
"provisional" vote. They won by rejecting
provisional ballots that were cast overwhelmingly in
Democratic precincts. The sum of "the uncounted" is
astonishing: 675,676 ballots lost in the counties reporting to
the federal government. Add in the missing jurisdictions and
the un-vote climbs to over a million: 1,090,729 provisional
ballots tossed out.
· Spoiled Ballots. You vote, you assume it’s
counted. Think again. Your "x" was too light for a
machine to read. You didn’t punch the card hard enough and
so you "hung your chad." Therefore, your vote didn’t
count and, crucially, you’ll never know it. The federal
Election Assistance Commission toted up nearly a million
ballots cast but not counted. Add in states too shy to report
to Washington, the total "spoilage" jumps to a
rotten 1,389,231.
· Absentee Ballots Uncounted. The number of
absentee ballots has quintupled in many states, with the
number rejected on picayune technical grounds rising to over
half a million (526,420) in 2004. In swing states, absentee
ballot shredding was pandemic.
· Voters Barred from Voting. In this
category we find a combination of incompetence and trickery
that stops voters from pulling the lever in the first place.
There’s the purge of "felon" voters that continues
to eliminate thousands whose only crime is VWB — Voting
While Black. It includes subtle games like eliminating
polling stations in selected districts, creating impossible
lines. No one can pretend to calculate a hard number for all
votes lost this way any more than you can find every bullet
fragment in a mutilated body. But it’s a safe bet that the
numbers reach into the hundreds of thousands of voters locked
out of the voting booth.
- Greg Palast 10.2006 [20]
The inherent unreliability of electronic voting
Electronic voting is always in secret [21] and
controlled by private vendors. Two of the three major vendors
are United States corporations with very serious Republican
ties. The third is foreign with undetermined ownership. The
GOP-friendly voting machines (and companies) have major security
risks including vulnerability to hacking, malicious code, subtle
pre programming. These apply to optical scan [22] and touch
screen [23] voting machines. These security problems have
been clearly demonstrated by world leading computer security
expert Haari Hursti’s hacks of both touch screen and optical
scan machines and the recent
Princeton University study [24].
Electronic vote tampering leaves no evidence for a
prosecution.
If the equipment can’t be monitored sufficiently to catch
fraud, it becomes a menace to voter confidence and the ability
to insure that those elected and serving were actually elected
in the first place. The ElectionArcive.Org [25] makes the
following key points in a pdf on election problems that is vital
for everyone concerned about free, fair and accessible elections
(click on link to download the entire presentation, a must for
activists).
National Election Data Archive [26]
P.O. 682556 Park City, UT 84068
Electronic Vote Tampering Leaves No Evidence to prosecute
with [27]
Machine code is not humanly readable
- Hundreds of programs on every machine
- Many months to reverse-engineer one voting machine
- Reverse engineering may find no evidence
- Network connections, hidden wireless cards or viruses in
proprietary hardware & software can be used to
undetectably shift just enough votes to change an
election.
- © 2006 US Counts Votes
There should never be any need to review presentations like
the outstanding resource provided by the ElectionArchive.Org,
but there is one now. Given the ongoing voter suppression
strategies in place for decades plus the new opportunities of
elections through various means of digital exploitation, the
time for vigilance is now. Everyone who is able should show up
and vote. Everyone who is able should be involved with their
elections demanding that they be run openly, fairly, and
inclusively. Those who experience problems should report them.
And those who are particularly motivated can contact these
organizations who will provide outlets for the type of energy
necessary to develop an election system that will allow us to
say with certainty that we live in a real democracy. Free,
fair, transparent, and inclusive elections will also allow
those who assume office to actually prove that they have the
right and mandate to do so through a legitimate election.
Partial list of groups working against voter suppression
and election fraud:
- The NAACP - http://action.naacp.org
[28]
- Election Defense Alliance - http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/"
[29]
- League of Women Voters - http://www.lwv.org
[30]
- Velvet Revolution - http://www.velvetrevolution.us/
[31]
Advancement Project - http://www.advancementproject.org/ [32]
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